<\/P>
Political opposition figures and analysts in Myanmar say they see scant hope that progress can be made toward resolving the country\u2019s crisis in expected talks between the generals who overthrew the elected government and a representative from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN).<\/P>
Appointed by 10-member ASEAN on Aug. 4 after months of delay, Erywan Yusof\u2014a senior Brunei diplomat\u2014has said he will insist on meeting with jailed members of the National League for Democracy (NLD) government overthrown and arrested in a the Feb. 1 military coup.<\/P>
He has yet to announce a date for his visit, though, citing a need to consult with other countries and stakeholders concerned with post-coup violence in Myanmar and its possible impact on stability in the wider Southeast Asian region.<\/P>
Erywan is now tasked with implementing a five-point consensus on Myanmar agreed by ASEAN at a special summit held in April in Jakarta and calling for the appointment of an envoy, provision of humanitarian assistance, cessation of violence, dialogue among all parties, and mediation by the envoy.<\/P>
Speaking on Monday on condition of anonymity, a member of the NLD\u2019s Central Committee said he welcomes ASEAN\u2019s mediation in the post-coup crisis, but voiced concern that the country\u2019s ruling military will simply use the 10-nation regional bloc for its own ends.<\/P>
\u201cOne of our concerns is that the regime will use the mediation process as a way to buy time and try to win international recognition,\u201d the NLD member said. \u201cAnd if that happens, ASEAN\u2019s current leaders will be despised by future generations [in our country].\u201d<\/P>
\u201cThis will be an opportunity for ASEAN to raise its prestige if it can secure a meeting with State Counselor Aung San Suu Kyi, whom the people of Myanmar trust and respect as their irreplaceable leader,\u201d he said.<\/P>
Erywan may find that junta leader Gen. Min Aung Hlaing does not allow him to meet with Aung San Suu Kyi or with other NLD figures currently held in jail or on trial in the country\u2019s capital Naypyidaw, other sources said.<\/P>
\u201cMin Aung Hlaing has no intention of negotiating,\u201d said Than Soe Naing, a political analyst based in Myanmar. <\/P>
The envoy \u201ccould ask for permission to meet with Aung San Suu Kyi, and he could say that he wanted to meet with other important people, too, but the military would simply reject his requests,\u201d he said, adding, \u201cHe\u2019s only a representative from ASEAN.\u201d<\/P>
\u201cHe might say \u2018Please stop [the violence],\u2019 but this won\u2019t happen,\u201d he said.<\/P>
‘Chance for a meaningful dialogue’<\/P>
ASEAN, which follows a founding principle of noninterference in the internal affairs of member states, will never be able to solve Myanmar\u2019s political crisis, Than Soe Naing said.<\/P>
\u201cWho will be on the ASEAN delegate\u2019s list of people to meet?\u201d asked Sai Leik, general secretary of the Shan Nationalities League for Democracy in Myanmar\u2019s Shan state. \u201cWill people like Aung San Suu Kyi and [former Myanmar president] Win Myint be allowed to meet with him? Will he meet with the resistance groups?\u201d<\/P>
\u201cOnly if he gets a chance to meet with all these people will there be a chance for a meaningful dialogue, but it is questionable whether all of this can happen,\u201d he said.<\/P>
\u201cIf he just meets with the military leaders selected by Gen. Min Aung Hlaing and then leaves the country, the whole thing will be meaningless. People will not get what they want, and the mediation process will only strengthen the junta\u2019s hold on power.\u201d<\/P>
Myanmar\u2019s military leaders have already recognized Erywan\u2019s appointment as ASEAN envoy, and he will be allowed to enter the country, said Naing Swe Oo, executive director of the Thayninga Strategic Studies Institute, a pro-military think tank in Yangon.<\/P>
\u201cHe will hold talks with government leaders, but the process will have to go in accordance with the road map laid out by the State Administration Council,\u201d he said, using the junta\u2019s formal name.<\/P>
\u201cI don\u2019t see any changes in this. There could be political dialogue, but I don\u2019t think there will be much progress,\u201d added Naing Swe Oo.<\/P>
On Feb. 1, Myanmar\u2019s military overthrew the country\u2019s democratically elected government, claiming voter fraud had led to a landslide victory for Aung San Suu Kyi\u2019s NLD party in the country\u2019s November 2020 election.<\/P>
The junta has yet to provide evidence of its claims and has violently suppressed nationwide demonstrations calling for a return to civilian rule, killing at least 962 people over the past six months.<\/P>
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Radio Free Asia –Copyright \u00a9 1998-2016, RFA. Used with the permission of Radio Free Asia, 2025 M St. NW, Suite 300, Washington DC 20036Radio Free Europe–Copyright (c) 2015. RFE\/RL, Inc. Reprinted with the permission of Radio Free Europe\/Radio Liberty, 1201 Connecticut Ave NW, Ste 400, Washington DC 20036. <\/P>
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