<\/P>
Post-coup Myanmar, the disputed South China Sea, and a response to a new United States-led defense pact may be the main issues discussed at next week\u2019s special ASEAN-China Summit to mark 30 years of bilateral relations, political analysts said.<\/P>
However, China\u2019s reported wish for a breakthrough on a Code of Conduct for parties in the South China Sea likely won\u2019t happen at the Nov. 22 summit, as Southeast Asian claimant-nations deal with Beijing\u2019s escalated actions and militarization in the disputed waterway.<\/P>
Chinese Premier Xi Jinping and leaders of Association of Southeast Asian Nations member-states are expected to attend the meeting, which the regional bloc and Beijing will host jointly. It will be their second bilateral meeting this year, and the first since ASEAN upgraded its ties with Beijing and Australia.<\/P>
\u201cAUKUS and Myanmar as well as South China Sea … are among the topics that would be the focus in the ASEAN-China Summit,\u201d James Chin, a Southeast Asia expert at the University of Tasmania, told BenarNews.<\/P>
\u201cIt will be an opportunity for China to try to use AUKUS as leverage against the West.\u201d<\/P>
Under the new three-nation pact, the United States and the United Kingdom will help Australia get nuclear-powered submarines, in an attempt to counter China\u2019s clout and military expansionism in the Indo-Pacific.<\/P>
ASEAN-China summits are usually focused on \u201cnot-so-sensitive things such as trade and investment,\u201d Muhammad Zulfikar Rakhmat, a lecturer in international relations at the Islamic University of Indonesia, told BenarNews.<\/P>
Thai Foreign Ministry spokesman Tanee Sangrat indicated that sensitive issues will not be discussed. <\/P>
\u201cThe meeting will underline the three decades of the cordial relationship and is to support China\u2019s constructive roles, which promote peace and stability in the region,\u201d Tanee told BenarNews via text message.<\/P>
But, according to Rakhmat, \u201crecent geopolitical developments mean it\u2019s likely that this year\u2019s ASEAN-China summit will discuss political and security issues.\u201d<\/P>
AUKUS is one of those big geopolitical developments that Beijing has fulminated against, saying it threatens stability in Southeast Asia.<\/P>
China would want ASEAN member-states on its side, but the regional bloc\u2019s member-states are divided over AUKUS which does not serve Beijing\u2019s interests, said Henrick Tsjeng, an international studies scholar at Nanyang Technological University in Singapore.<\/P>
\u201cThis means, from Beijing\u2019s perspective, that a part of Southeast Asia could potentially still be used by the U.S. to counter China\u2019s regional influence,\u201d Tsjeng told BenarNews.<\/P>
On the other hand, a divided ASEAN \u201ccould help China by ensuring that ASEAN will never be able to form a cohesive bloc that acts against Beijing\u2019s interests in the region,\u201d he added.<\/P>
Beijing uses \u2018financial inducements\u2019<\/P>
Over their 30 years of bilateral ties, ASEAN and China have had \u201ca highly asymmetric relationship\u201d and this mainly reflects in issues to do with the disputed South China Sea, said Hunter Marston, an international relations scholar at the Australian National University.<\/P>
China claims nearly the entire sea, including waters within the exclusive economic zones of four ASEAN members: Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines and Vietnam.<\/P>
\u201cBeijing has found it useful to engage ASEAN in order to advance its regional ambitions, particularly by splitting states that disagree over geostrategic disputes like the South China Sea,\u201d Marston told BenarNews.<\/P>
\u201cBeijing uses both financial inducements and punitive measures to dictate preferred norms of behavior by smaller states. For instance, China has cut off Philippine banana imports amidst maritime disputes \u2026 and frozen financial lending to Vietnam due to its oil and gas exploration in disputed waters.\u201d<\/P>
China\u2019s boats have repeatedly violated the law by intruding into the waters of Southeast Asian claimant-states, analysts have said.<\/P>
Just on Thursday, Chinese coast guard ships reportedly used water cannons to block a Philippine resupply mission to its military outpost on a reef in the South China Sea, Filipino officials alleged. Manila called the action \u201cillegal.\u201d<\/P>
China\u2019s \u2018words and actions often don’t align\u2019<\/P>
In the face of such provocation by Beijing, \u201cASEAN states have far less leverage to speak out or push back against Chinese pressure,\u201d Marston said, referring to Southeast Asian nations\u2019 economies being dependent on China.<\/P>
The Asian superpower has vigorously promoted infrastructure investment into Southeast Asia through the One Belt, One Road (OBOR) initiative, its $1 trillion-plus program to build a network of railways, ports and bridges across 70 countries.<\/P>
\u201cChinese investment in Southeast Asia remained steady between 10 to 30 percent of total BRI [Belt, Road Initiative] investment from 2014 to 2019,\u201d Tsjeng of Nanyang Technological University.<\/P>
\u201cWith the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, this percentage jumped to 36 percent in 2020 \u2013 even though total global BRI investment dropped sharply.\u201d<\/P>
In addition, ASEAN last year became China\u2019s biggest trade partner, replacing the European Union \u2013 bilateral trade reached U.S. $732 billion.<\/P>
Marston, from the Australian National University, said ASEAN states would benefit from China\u2019s trade and investment even without bilateral diplomacy. But that engagement \u201chas failed to ameliorate China\u2019s coercive behavior,\u201d he said.<\/P>
That is why China\u2019s wish, according to reports, to speed up negotiations on the Code of Conduct to coincide with the 30th anniversary of ASEAN-Beijing dialogue may not be fulfilled, said Derek Grossman, a senior defense analyst at the RAND Corporation, a U.S. think-tank.<\/P>
\u201cChina and ASEAN maritime counterclaimants remain too far apart in negotiations for this to realistically stand a chance of happening this year. Or any year for the foreseeable future,\u201d Grossman said on Twitter.<\/P>
China will say that it wants peace, stability and security in the region, said the University of Indonesia\u2019s Rakhmat.<\/P>
\u201c[A]lthough when it comes to the South China Sea, [it\u2019s] words and actions often don\u2019t align,\u201d he said.<\/P>
Junta leader to show up?<\/P>
Meanwhile, it remains unclear whether the junta leader of Myanmar, which is this year\u2019s China-ASEAN dialogue coordinator, will be represented at the leader-level summit on Monday.<\/P>
In an unprecedented move, the ASEAN Summit last month barred Senior Gen. Min Aung Hlaing, who led the Feb. 1 coup in Myanmar, saying he had reneged on promises made to the bloc on taking steps to restore peace and democracy.<\/P>
Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore and the Philippines spearheaded the effort to disinvite the Burmese junta chief.<\/P>
On Thursday, though, Reuters news agency reported that a Chinese envoy was lobbying ASEAN member-states to allow Min Aung Hlaing to attend.<\/P>
Four regional diplomatic and political sources whom Reuters did not name said Indonesia, Brunei, Malaysia and Singapore did not want the Burmese junta chief at the Monday meeting.<\/P>
BenarNews could not independently confirm the lobbying effort, although the Indonesian Foreign Ministry spokesman Teuku Faizasyah said Indonesia was in favor of banning Min Aung Hlaing from the Monday meeting.<\/P>
\u201cI have no knowledge of such a proposal [to allow Min Aung Hlaing to attend],\u201d he told BenarNews.<\/P>
\u201cIndonesia remains consistent. Indonesia\u2019s position hasn\u2019t changed.\u201d<\/P>
Hadi Azmi in Kuala Lumpur, Tria Dianti and Ronna Nirmala in Jakarta, and Pimuk Rakkanam in Bangkok contributed to this report.<\/P>
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