Russian President Vladimir Putin’s trip to Pyongyang last week could provide an opportunity for Seoul to improve relations with Beijing.

While Putin was meeting North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, senior foreign ministry and defense officials from China and South Korea, in a coincidence of timing, had gathered in Seoul to discuss their future relations. Beneath the surface, both Beijing and Seoul are concerned about the closer ties between Moscow and Pyongyang, underscored by Putin’s visit and signing of a new mutual defense agreement.

Beijing is again seeing North Korea revert to its traditional strategy of playing off China and Russia against each other to win concessions from both countries, threatening to weaken Beijing’s influence in Pyongyang.

At the same time, China must be worried that Moscow’s pledge to defend North Korea and possibly provide more advanced military technology to it will increase instability in Northeast Asia, although it should be noted that China has its own defense treaty with Nort
h Korea.

China wants to avoid a Cold War-style bloc confrontation in the region. It also does not want to be seen as being aligned closely with Russia and North Korea when it wants to increase trade with Europe in response to its intensifying strategic rivalry with the United States.

Seoul has obvious concerns about the build-up of North Korea’s nuclear and missile arsenal, aided by Russia’s support. It called on China to play a constructive role, saying tensions resulting from closer military cooperation between Moscow and Pyongyang were not in Beijing’s interest.

The so-called “two plus two dialogue” in Seoul, the first to be held since 2015, followed a meeting between Chinese Prime Minister Li Qiang and President Yoon Suk Yeol in Seoul last month as part of a trilateral summit with Japan. At that summit, China endorsed a call for the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, which angered Pyongyang.

Yoon appears not to be completely on board with Washington’s hawkish stance on China despite deepening s
ecurity ties with the U.S.

He abandoned an election promise to deploy additional U.S. Terminal High Altitude Area Defense anti-missile batteries, which drew the ire of China when they were first positioned in 2017.

Another election pledge that Yoon dropped was to formally join the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, the grouping of the U.S., Japan, India and Australia, that China views as an attempt to contain it.

The Yoon administration has been careful about taking an explicit pro-Taiwan stance while stating continued support for the One China doctrine. It appears determined not to be drawn into the middle of any conflict over Taiwan.

Yoon’s moderate course toward China was summed up in his administration’s Indo-Pacific strategy statement last year in which Seoul said it did “not seek to target or exclude any specific nation” and defined China as a “key regional partner.” It emphasized the need for inclusive regional cooperation and engagement.

There is no mystery in explaining why Seoul wants to maintain
positive relations with Beijing. China rivals the U.S. as Korea’s biggest export market, while Seoul wants to prevent Beijing from pursuing active military cooperation with Pyongyang.

Seoul has tried to counter U.S. efforts to restrict the supply of Korean semiconductors to China, a major market for the chip industry. Samsung and SK hynix have invested heavily in China to produce a large portion of their memory chips there. In addition, China remains an important source of rare earth minerals used for chip production.

This is a source of tension with Washington and could become a serious problem if Donald Trump is re-elected as president. Meanwhile, Seoul has signed a bilateral agreement with Beijing to boost supply chain cooperation.

Far from decoupling from China, which the U.S. desires, Seoul wants to protect existing bilateral chains and agreed during last month’s trilateral summit to resume negotiations with Beijing to upgrade a free trade agreement.

The Yoon administration should pursue good relatio
ns with China not only for economic reasons. Diplomatic cooperation between Seoul and Beijing could also help defuse a potential conflict in Northeast Asia, with them serving as mediators between the Moscow-Pyongyang axis and Washington.

However, challenges to better ties between China and South Korea remain. Seoul must take into account that its growing military cooperation with the U.S. and Japan is likely to antagonize China. Beijing believes such cooperation is not only part of a U.S.-led containment strategy but also encourages Pyongyang’s aggressive actions.

South Korea’s cooperation with China may prove to be more significant than Russia’s support for North Korea. Beijing is likely to have more influence over North Korea in the long-term since it accounts for more than 90 percent of North Korea’s trade. In contrast, Russia’s strategy with North Korea is more transactional and may last only as long as the Ukraine conflict as it seeks weapon supplies from Pyongyang.

Source: Yonhap News Agency