The National Intelligence Service (NIS) confirmed on Friday that North Korea has deployed troops to assist Russia in its war against Ukraine. At a National Security Council (NSC) meeting, the spy agency revealed aerial images showing hundreds of North Koreans training in Russia’s far eastern region. According to the NIS, North Korea recently decided to send 12,000 troops, including specially trained forces known as the “Storm Corps.” This unit is comparable to South Korea’s army special forces, known as the “Black Berets,” which operate under the Army Special Warfare Command.

North Korea’s troop deployment has prompted an unwanted shift in South Korea’s status regarding the war in Ukraine: previously an observer, South Korea is now considered a stakeholder.

Kim Jong-un’s decision to join the war in Ukraine poses serious consequences for South Korea. In the event of conflict on the Korean Peninsula, Russia could use this situation as an excuse to deploy its troops, provide weapons, or both, to support North
Korea. This concern is heightened by a treaty signed between Pyongyang and Moscow during Russian President Vladimir Putin’s visit to Pyongyang in June, which calls for mutual defense assistance. During a news conference, Putin clarified that the agreement includes provisions for mutual assistance if either signatory is invaded.

North Korea’s decision to send troops to Russia is a critical development that prompted South Korea to rethink its stance on the war in Ukraine. The presidential office said on Friday that sending lethal weapons to Ukraine is one of what it called “all possible means” it reviewed during the NSC meeting. South Korea has provided non-lethal aid to the war-torn Ukraine, refusing Kyiv’s requests to send weapons.

The presidential office said North Korea’s troop deployment poses a threat that could destabilize the global security environment. It emphasized that South Korea will collaborate closely with the international community to review and implement all possible measures to counter thi
s threat.

It remains to be seen whether North Korea’s deployment of 12,000 troops will alter the battlefield situation in Russia’s favor, as Moscow hopes. Since its invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Russia has faced significant losses in both personnel and equipment. According to a U.S. Congressional Research Service report updated on Oct. 10, officials in Washington believe Russia suffered at least 600,000 killed or wounded. Russia, however, made steady progress in capturing territory in Ukraine, it said.

Several defense experts told The Korea Times that North Korea’s troop dispatch could be a factor in turning the tide in Russia’s favor as those troops are not ordinary soldiers but specially trained elite forces.

For Kim Jong-un, the troop deployment to Russia is a high-stakes poker game. While he may believe there are significant gains to be made, the risks are equally substantial. By sending troops to Russia, North Korea risks becoming a common enemy of the members of the North Atlantic Treaty Orga
nization (NATO). Despite these dangers, Kim appears to have determined that the benefits of the troop dispatch will ultimately outweigh the potential losses.

The troop dispatch represents a lucrative opportunity for Kim, as it is expected to yield financial quid pro quo from Russia. This decision not only helps North Korea capitalize on Russia’s troop shortages but also strengthens military ties between the two nations. The timing is significant, given that Russia is currently facing a shortfall in personnel, allowing North Korea to leverage this situation to bolster its relationship with Moscow.

The true threat that South Korea should closely monitor is that North Korean troops will gain valuable real-world combat experience. This opportunity will allow North Korea to assess the effectiveness of its military tactics and strategies on the battlefield and determine whether its weapons sent to Russia can accurately strike the enemy. By observing and participating in the conflict, North Korea will likely seek
to enhance its weapons systems and refine its military tactics based on these experiences in Ukraine.

North Korea’s troop deployment signaled that the war in Ukraine is no longer a conflict that has little to do with South Korea. The South should closely monitor the war and work closely with the U.S. and other security partners to prevent the fallout of North Korea’s troop deployment.

Source: Yonhap News Agency