WASHINGTON, June 17 (Yonhap) — Russian President Vladimir Putin’s imminent trip to North Korea is likely to heighten security uncertainties from their burgeoning military cooperation, and lessen Pyongyang’s already dwindling appetite for diplomacy with South Korea and the United States, analysts said Monday.

Russia’s news agency TASS reported that Putin will visit Pyongyang on Tuesday and Wednesday for a summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, which will likely produce a treaty on a “comprehensive strategic partnership.” His Asia swing also includes a trip to Vietnam.

Putin’s upcoming visit comes amid deepening concerns that military transactions between Pyongyang and Moscow would help prop up Russia’s protracted war of attrition in Ukraine and undermine security on the Korean Peninsula in the absence of meaningful engagement between the U.S. and the North.

Analysts said that Seoul, Washington and other partners should step up concerted efforts to keep identifying U.N. Security Council (UNSC) resolut
ion violations by Russia and the North, and disrupt and publicize their transactions banned under the resolutions.

“The timing right after the Group of Seven (summit in Italy) is Putin’s answer, showing his presence in Asia and his ability to complicate Biden’s security picture not just in Europe but in East and Southeast Asia,” Victor Cha, senior vice president for Asia and Korea Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said.

“This will make it very unlikely for North Korea to reengage with (U.S. President) Biden before the election. Instead, they will ramp up testing and exercises as they always do in U.S. election years,” he added.

The signing of a comprehensive strategic partnership treaty is expected to be a key event during Putin’s first trip to the North since 2000.

Yuri Ushakov, Putin’s aide for foreign affairs, said that it will replace the “fundamental” documents — the 1961 Treaty of Friendship and Mutual Assistance, the 2000 Treaty of Friendship and Good Neighborly Cooperat
ion, and the Moscow and Pyongyang Declarations of 2000 and 2001, according to TASS.

“This treaty, if signed, is needed amid the profound evolution of the geopolitical situation in the world and in the region as well as qualitative changes in our bilateral relation in recent time,” Ushakov was quoted as saying.

“Naturally, it will respect all the basic principles of international law. It will not have a confrontational character and will not be aimed against any countries.”

Though it would be called a “comprehensive” document, observers said the crux of it would be the two countries’ defense cooperation.

“Moscow and Pyongyang want to leverage the perception that their ties are long term and increasingly integrated regarding defense,” Patrick Cronin, chair for Asia-Pacific Security at the Hudson Institute, said.

“They may also suggest this relationship is comprehensive. Certainly both countries are facing serious economic dilemmas. But regardless of the words used, current relations will focus on defense c
ooperation.”

But Cronin predicted that an alliance with security guarantees is unlikely to result from the summit between Kim and Putin.

The scholar described the upcoming summit between Kim and Putin as “two strongmen with weak economies basking in the limelight as leaders to swap military technology and subvert the U.S. led-order.”

“Putin wants to show he is able to fight in Ukraine indefinitely and to impose costs on the U.S. if he (Putin) can tip the military balance a bit more in Asia, where the U.S. is watching China,” he said. “He hopes to persuade American decision makers to end support for Ukraine’s defense. But this is unlikely to work the way Putin intends.”

Putin’s upcoming visit has generated much attention to what Pyongyang and Moscow each would get from the summit. Pyongyang has long been thirsty for high-end military technology to advance its nuclear, missile, satellite and nuclear-powered submarine programs, with Moscow bent on ensuring a steady supply of weapons for its war in Ukraine.

“During this visit of Putin, North Korea will likely promise, for example, to provide Russia with continuing supplies of artillery, guided rockets for multiple rocket launchers, and short-range missiles to support Russia’s operations in Ukraine,” Bruce Bennett, senior defense analyst at RAND Corp., said.

“And it will ask for Russia to provide a variety of advanced technologies to improve these kinds of systems and the munitions that they carry. That would include enhanced guidance, the potential for missiles carrying multiple independent warheads, and enhanced nuclear weapon technology.”

He also said that Pyongyang could even seek “nuclear umbrella” support from Russia, though Kim’s desire to be “self-reliant” may prevent him from going too far in this direction.

“North Korea will want a substantial flow of Russian oil and food products along with hard currency payments,” he added.

These bilateral transactions have been carefully watched by Seoul and Washington as they can have an adverse effect on securi
ty on the Korean Peninsula and the battleground situation in Ukraine.

Pyongyang is known to have provided Russia with a large number of munitions, in addition to dozens of ballistic missiles, for use in Ukraine. Observers believe Russia’s battlefield use of those weapons might have given Pyongyang technical insights to help improve its weapons programs.

“What we are concerned about is the deepening relationship between these two countries not just because of the impact that it is going to have on the Ukrainian people because North Korean ballistic missiles are still being used to hit Ukrainian targets,” White House National Security Communications Advisor John Kirby told a press briefing.

“But because there could be some reciprocity here that could affect security on the Korean Peninsula. Now, we haven’t seen the parameters of all that right now … Certainly, we haven’t see it come to fruition but we are certainly going to be watching that very closely,” he added.

Pyongyang’s investment in renewed cooper
ation with Moscow has apparently paid tangible dividends.

In March, Russia vetoed a UNSC resolution that would have extended the mandate of an expert panel tasked with monitoring the enforcement of anti-Pyongyang sanctions. The panel’s mandate expired in April, dealing a setback to global sanctions enforcement efforts.

Russia delivered more than 165,000 barrels of refined petroleum to North Korea in March alone, with its shipments having already pushed Pyongyang’s imports above an annual UNSC-mandated cap. Reports have also said that North Korean workers, a source of foreign currency, have gained employment in Russia despite UNSC restrictions.

With Russia providing such aid, North Korea’s need for the resumption of dialogue with Washington or Seoul may further diminish, analysts said, particularly when U.S. President Joe Biden are his predecessor, Donald Trump, are set to face off against each other in the Nov. 5 presidential election.

“I think that’s absolutely true since Moscow is providing the basic ec
onomic needs they want but in addition, if they engaged with U.S., they then hear about how things were in South Korea,” Bennett said.

“So engaging with the Russians means that it prevents some of the outside information they don’t want into the North. So it’s kind of a double benefit for North Korea to be able to get those things not from the U.S. or South Korea.”

Some observers said that should the war in Ukraine wind down, cooperation between the North and Russia may weaken.

“It would lose its impetus. But then I don’t assume the war is about to end soon,” Cronin said.

Growing ties between the North and Russia have raised questions over China’s calculus in the geopolitical dynamics.

Bennett brought attention to North Korea’s diplomacy decades ago that appeared to be aimed at maximizing its interests between Moscow and Beijing.

“We have to remember from the 1970s and 1980s that North Korea never got too close to either China or Russia. Instead, Kim’s grandfather, Kim Il-sung, played Russia and China o
ff against each other, exploiting every opportunity to get goods and services from each country,” he said.

“So the United States should be talking about that kind of North Korean exploitation and how both China and Russia are falling victim to continued North Korean manipulation.”

Source: Yonhap News Agency